2024 Presidential Election Odds: Why Isn't Biden Favored?

There's been a massive shift in the US Presidential Odds. Trump is no longer a 45-point favorite on the board. That gap has been cut massively with both candidates neck-and-neck. Trump is the slight favorite at EVEN money while incumbent Joe Biden is at +110.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

Odds as of May 8

Odds as of May 8

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Trump's TV Shine

We're seeing a slowdown in Trump's popularity within his own party. In 2020 we saw Trump win 94% of the vote in the primaries. An insane number of votes. But this year, with 79% of the contests decided, Trump only has 75% of the votes but won 95% of the contests. 

Look, we know Trump owns the Republican Party. But to win a Presidential election he has to appeal to more than just the GOP. He's got to pull in centrists and even some on the center-left.

We have to remember that Trump has never won the popular vote. He went from a -2.8 million gap in the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and then -7 million to Biden in 2020.

If Trump is losing steam within his own party, it seems like there is very little chance he can convince enough centrists to win in 2024. Look Trump's unfavorability is rising, sitting at 53% as late as the end of April per FiveThirtyEight. And that's before his hush money trial is concluded, should Trump be proven guilty that unfavorable rate likely goes up.

And yet, somehow Trump's odds are...better? He's at +100 from +110 a month ago. I guess this is the power of television? Even if the only shot of him on TV is in the courtroom it's not negatively impacting his odds!

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Joe Biden

President, Biden has done a great job keeping inflation under control and unemployment low. And has done so for a long time now. Both key economic factors have been trending positively since he stepped into the Oval Office.

So how is he not the favorite? 

Well, to be frank, the average voter doesn't care about economic factors because. Prices might be falling and jobs might be more available but incomes aren't rising. Median wages have been falling month over month since March of 2023. People still can't afford goods even with falling prices. That's easy to notice.

And if the US is heading for a recession in 2024, it could be a huge problem for Joe. Incumbents are vulnerable during a recession. 

US President Odds: Favorite Usually Wins

Usually the favorite wins. Of 59 Presidential elections only four have been won by an underdog. Trump is one of only four candidates to win the White House as the underdog since 1916. 

How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this:

The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case, Joe Biden, is considered the betting favorite for this market. 

Now, if you believe that Ron DeSantis will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he is elected in 2024, you'd get $2600 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $2500 in profit.

Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

What Are Presidential Futures?

Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.

Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.