Derrick Lewis is a -150 favorite ahead of a UFC Fight Night matchup vs Rodrigo Nascimento, who comes in as a +125 underdog. The fight takes place May 11.
With tight odds and a loud crowd expected in St. Louis, this heavyweight main will end much earlier than its scheduled five rounds.
Lewis vs Nascimento Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis | -150 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | +125 |
Odds as of May 8
Our odds calculator suggests Lewis' -150 odds equate to an implied win probability of 60%, meaning a $100 bet on her pays out $166.67. Nascimento's +125 underdog odds imply a 44.44% chance to win, and a $100 bet on him pays out $225.
Lewis vs Nascimento Betting Preview & Picks
Somehow, some way, Derrick Lewis continues to secure main-event appearances. Luckily for us, he's not always the hardest fighter to handicap. For example, four of Lewis' last five bouts have ended UNDER 1.5 rounds.
His decision loss to Jailton Almeida was weird, but we'll proceed with the mentality that Lewis is still a finisher, even at 39 years old.
How To Bet Lewis
On home soil in St. Louis, Lewis will come out swinging. Think of how "The Black Beast" leveled Marcos Rogerio de Lima with a flying knee at UFC 291 — he may try something wild like that again.
At first glance, Lewis appears to be outmatched on the ground. Nascimento is a decent grappler, but he's no Almeida. Perhaps the Brazilian keeps him down for a little bit, but without the threat of a knockout (Nascimento has zero UFC KO wins), Lewis is "big chilling," as they say.
Instead, I'll bet Lewis makes the most of this striking discrepancy. He'll load up with all his punches, even if he misses and winds up on the receiving end of a takedown. Lewis might take a round to connect but he will get it done. If you're betting Lewis, do it straight up because there's no value difference in picking knockout. A sprinkle on first-round KO can't hurt either.
How to Bet Nascimento
I'm not high on Nascimento at all. He struggled mightily to beat the likes of Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser, two weaker heavyweights. He snuck past Don'Tale Mayes (another poor fighter) last time around, but didn't demonstrate any legitimate progress to suggest he can best Lewis Saturday.
That said, this is a heavyweight bout, and Lewis has that Michael Johnson unpredictability in him. If you want Nascimento, I'd take him to win either by submission (+300) or just straight up.
Lewis vs Nascimento Picks
I've laid out my picks: I like Lewis to win (-150) alongside a sprinkle for him to win by first-round knockout. He's got way more KO potential than Nascimento, even late into his career.
